That Magic Age

I remember reading somewhere that the magic age for baseball players is 27 years old. So I decided to test out that theory.

I recorded the ages of all the ages of the MVP winners under the assumption that winning the MVP award is the equivalent of having a career year. I took the age as the age at which the player spent the longest time in the season playing at that age. For example, if a player was born in August 1972, won the award in 2002, then he would be on the graph as 29. I used January-June and July-December as cutoffs, meaning that, if a player turned 34 in July, he would be recorded as 33. At the suggestion of my friend, I took two graphs. One looks at the ages of every MVP winner ever. The other takes a more recent look, from 1980 onward.

A few brief notes about this. For multiple winners, like Yogi Berra, I recorded every age at which he won the MVP award. I also included the strike-shortened 1994 season, as well as players who are of a less than reputable reputation regarding the steroids era, such as Barry Bonds and Sammy Sosa. See if you can guess which one is the outlier at age 39. (Hint: He's a lefty with a noodle arm.)
The mode of the graph is at 27. The bell curve goes from 25-30. The average of 25 and 30 is 27.5. So, based on history, it is not inconceivable that players perform better at or around age 27. Before we say anything definitive, let's take a more recent look, as it should be a little more relevant to today's discussion.

And now, for the 1980-Present Age.


As you can see, the curve at 27 is much more pronounced here, and it is easy to see why people would say that age 27 is an age where players perform their best. In fact, the three highest occurrences are at 26, 27, and 28.

There is the evidence; I leave the interpretation up to you.

Thanks to Sean for helping get the JPEGs. All images belong to me. Please ask before using them.

Update: "I just turned 25 and I feel like I have the prime of my career ahead of me," Francoeur said. "Most guys don't hit their peak until they're 27 or 28. I feel confident that I'm going to come back, do what I need to do and help this team win, because I know I'm a big part of it."

I know I heard it before reading it there. However, this mentality undoubtedly has an effect on the way a player performs: if a player thinks they will do better because of they are a certain age, then they probably will perform better.

Prince Fielder Avoids Arbitration

The Brewers have successfully avoided arbitration with Prince Fielder. They signed him to a reported 2 year deal worth 18 million. This works out to 9 million a year, one million more than he requested in arbitration. This is a good move for the Brewers as it allows them to avoid arbitration and retain one of their key players through the 2010 season.

Francoeur on the way out? Orioles re-sign Markakis, Jeff Kent Retires, more

Is Jeff Francoeur on the way out in Atlanta?

This is just speculation on my part, but he very well could be. According to Keith Law, the Braves have moved top prospect Jason Heyward from center field to right field. This could be due to a high number of center fielders already in the organization who are developmentally ahead of Heyward (Josh Anderson, Jordan Schaefer, Gorkys Hernandez), similar to how the Braves had what they thought was a career player in Andruw Jones when Francoeur was making his way through the minors. Additionally, after an abysmal 2008, Jeff Francoeur has fallen from grace in the eyes of the Braves front office and some of the fans. Additionally, Francoeur and the Braves will go to arbitration over a 1.15 million dollar difference in salary. Additionally, Heyward was invited to Spring Training. To me, these are tell-tale signs that Francoeur won't remain a Brave for much longer.

The Orioles re-signed Markakis to a 6 year deal worth 66.1 million. I like this deal for the Orioles. Markakis is a solid outfielder on the right side of 30. Additionally, he is a career Oriole. I am always a fan of players that play their entire career with a single team because baseball is one of the few sports where it is possible. The attitude of trading for big names or signing big name free agents to ridiculously high contracts has proven to be not the way to go in recent years. An example that comes to mind is the Yankees since 2000, having signed Giambi to a 100 million dollar deal, signing Pavano to a high contract, giving Kyle Farnsworth more than he's worth in the 2005 offseason, and, oh yes, trading for A-Rod.

Jeff Kent retired after 17 seasons. And let the Hall of Fame debate begin. Kent, undoubtedly, has the numbers to be in the Hall (I am disappointed he fell short of 400 HRs). However, numbers alone to not get one into the Hall of Fame. I, for one, was never a fan of Jeff Kent and his attitude, which caused issues with teammates in the past. Whether or not Kent will be able to make the Hall on the first ballot is another question entirely, as he joins Greg Maddux and Mike Mussina, on the 2014 Hall of Fame Ballot, as well as potentially Ken Griffey Jr, Tom Glavine, and Frank Thomas.

Prince Fielder requests 8 million in aribtration. There's no reason why he shouldn't get this. I view Fielder as similar to Ryan Howard at the end of the 2007 season when he field for, and won arbitration (there was a 3 million dollar difference between the club and Howard; Fielder has a 2 million dollar difference). Fielder is also 4 years younger than Howard at each's time of arbitration, which gives him additional upside.

RedSox sign Youk; Andruw Jones released; Young agrees to play third

So, it's been a bit since the last update. Here's a lot of news.

The Dodgers released Andruw Jones. This comes as no surprise to anyone after they restructured his deal to defer his salary. After a 2008 season where he could not his his weight, struck out more than two times as many times as he got a hit, and where he hit just one more homerun than CC Sabathia, he would be lucky to find any suitors. Jones is 32 in April. If he agrees to sign for the league minimum, which, he has no reason not to, given the money he's getting from the Dodgers, then he should be a good low-risk high-reward investment.

The RedSox signed Kevin Youkilis to a 4 year, 41.25 million dollar deal. This is a bargain for the RedSox, as Youkilis provides solid defense at first base, and at third. He finished third in MVP voting this past year, hitting 29 HRs, 115 RBIs, and a .312 Average, establishing himself as one of the elite corner infielders in the game today.

Michael Young agrees to play third base. Good. He was acting like a prima donna refusing to shift. There have been many players who have shifted position for the good of their team, and many of them better than Young, chief among them Alex Rodriguez. Also included is Chipper Jones, who moved to LF for a few seasons so the Braves could have Vinny Castilla at third, and Cal Ripken Jr, who moved to third base.

The Whitesox Signed Bartolo Colon to a one year deal. Fitting that the 2005 AL Cy Young Winner signs with the 2005 World Series champs. Colon is 36 in May and has yet to be able to duplicate that success he had in 2005. He has a career ERA over 4. The upside to him is that he has a K to BB ratio of over 2, and career winning percentage of 60.7 %. This trade probably fills void left by Vazquez, though how effective Colon will be, remains to be seen.

Braves Sign Lowe

The Atlanta Braves have signed Derek Lowe to a reported 4 year, 60 million dollar contract.

The contract isn't nearly as bad as I was expecting. I feel that this is better than Burnett in that Lowe has never had injury issues. There is enormous downside to this contract though: This leaves the Braves without a left-handed starting pitcher, unless Jo-Jo Reyes manages to turn things around in Spring Training and beat out Campillo, Morton, and Parr for the fifth spot. Also, Lowe is 36 this year, meaning he will be 40 at the end of his contract. I do not believe that he will be able to be as dominant as he was in 2002. At the same time, this also gives the Braves virtually no reason rush Tommy Hanson to the majors and a sense of stability in the rotation.

Jim Rice, Rickey Henderson Elected to the Hall of Fame

Jim Rice and Rickey Henderson were elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame today.

Both deserved to get elected. Rice hit near .300 for his career with just under 2500 hits and fell just short of 400 HRs. It is difficult, in my mind, to qualify Rice as being a dominant outfielder in his career. He did make the AllStar game 8 times however, and is unquestionably a man of good character.

Rickey Henderson is arguably one of the best leadoff hitters of all time, and is the career leader for leadoff HRs. Henderson won the World Series with the BlueJays in 1993, and is also the career leader in stolen bases. He bounced around 10 different Major League teams in his career, so it will be interesting to see whose hat he wears to go into the Hall. My vote would be for either the Oakland Athletics or the New York Yankees.

It is also notable that Mark McGwire received only 21.9% of the vote. I for one, could not be happier with this. If Pete Rose isn't in the Hall because of his gambling, then Mark McGwire should not be in the Hall for all the suspicion surrounding his name for the use of steroids then other illegal performance-enhancing substances.

Braves Sign Kawakami, Redsox, Saito

According to RotoWorld, the Braves have signed Kenshin Kawakami to a deal. This could be good for the Braves, depending upon how much they spent. Anything more than 7 million a year, in my opinion, is paying too much for him, considering that he is unproven in the MLB. Given the benchmarks of Daisuke Matsuzaka and Kei Igawa, I doubt that the Braves paid less than 7 million. I view Kawakami, age 33, as a stopgap until Hanson is ready.

My realistic projection for Kawakami:  11-10, 3.78 ERA, 195 IP, 140 Ks.  

Additionally, the RedSox have signed Takashi Saito. This is a great move for Boston, as it takes a step to help fix on of their problems from last year: Their Bullpen. Yes, Saito is 39, however, he can become a solid setup man for Papelbon.

If I Were the Atlanta Braves GM

As you will undoubtedly find out, I am a die-hard Braves fan. This being said, I am extremely disappointed with the Braves' current offseason. Not only did we not get Furcal, we also decided that we would never to business with his agent again. We also let one of the greatest pitchers in Atlanta's history, John Smoltz, go to the RedSox. And we traded for Javier Vazquez. Don't get me wrong, I don't hate Vazquez. It's just that I believe we gave up too much (Tyler Flowers) for him.

What has been good this offseason, is that we did not trade for Peavy and we did not sign Burnett. Do not get me wrong, I would have loved to see both in a Braves uniform. However, we would have grossly overpaid for Burnett, and would have given up too much for Peavy.

Thus, I present the first in a possibly 30 part series (If I am not lazy): If I were _________'s GM. Today, it's If I Were Atlanta's GM. I refuse to write his name, for I feel he has mishandled this offeason. Now, without further adieu, the moves I would make.

Offer a contract to Tom Glavine.
Tom Glavine is undoubtedly a Brave. He deserves the respect of being offered a contract. Not counting last year, Tom Glavine had never made a trip to the DL. He is reliable, and still has enough to prove effective.

Offer a contract to Andruw Jones
Andruw Jones is worth the risk. The Dodgers are on the verge of cutting him. He would probably sign for close to the league minimum. If we signed Andruw Jones to a minor league contract, we could extend an invitation to Spring Training. This is exactly the type of low-risk high-reward move that the Rays have made in the past on people like Carlos Pena. The reason this idea is so good for the Braves is that Andruw Jones is still beloved by the Braves, and it would work to appease Braves fans sore from the loss of Smoltz. Not only that, but Jones could fill in at LF for Atlanta if he does well in Spring Training. I say LF because his health is in question after having surgery on his knee this past season, and as such, he might not be able to keep up at CF.

Extend Chipper Jones
He is undoubtedly worth extending. Chipper Jones has not played more than 140 games since 2003. That being said, since 1995, he has never hit fewer than 20 HRs in a season, never had fewer than 70 RBIs, and hit below .300 only three times. He had at least 100 RBIs from 1996-2003. He is aging, yes. However, he is still one of the best third basemen in the game, proving that by winning a batting title at the ripe old age of 36. Similar to Andruw, he is also a fan favorite.

Sign Jeff Francoeur to a long term deal
Jeff is 25 later this month. He is still young, and still has potential. Admittedly, last year was abysmal. Despite this, he still had 70+ RBIs. He is a former Gold Glove winner, and was a ROTY contender in 2005, even though he came up in July. He also led the NL in OF Assists in 2006, and has one of the most feared OF arms in the game. Both he and Brian McCann are the future of the franchise, and McCann already signed a long-term deal after his AllStar 2006 season.

Convert Jo-Jo Reyes to the 'Pen
He has not had much success as a starter. Converting him to the bullpen is a risk, yes. However, if done properly, Reyes could find success. He was brought up as a starter, and making the transition will enable him to be very successful. If he is used to pacing himself, then being able to go full-speed for an inning will make his stuff more effective. Additionally, he should be able to go more than an inning, and be able to go back-to-back days.

Bite the Bullet
The Braves need to admit that 2009 is a wash. If this is done, the season can be somewhat salvaged. A rotation of Vazquez-Jurrjens-Glavine-Morton-Parr might not be that intimidating. However, allowing Morton and Parr to go a full season and get solid Major League experience is invaluable to the both of them as it will allow them to develop as starters. Also, Tommy Hanson must not be thrown into the inferno immediately. A set of "Tommy" rules, similar to the "Joba Rules" the Yankees had in 2007 must be put into effect for Hanson if and when he is called up. He is the future of the Braves rotation and must be protected. If this is all done properly, this would set up the Braves for a 2010 rotation of Jurrjens-Vazquez-Hanson-Morton-Parr. The core four of Jurrjens-Hanson-Morton-Parr are invaluable to the franchise. They are young. They have talent. I see Jurrjens and Hanson as AllStars by 2012, and Parr and Morton as solid 3-4 guys.

In closing, these moves would not make the Braves immediate contenders. That is not the idea behind the 2009 season. In a division with the Phillies, the Mets, and the ever-dangerous Marlins, it is nearly impossible to become contenders over the course of one off season. However, the Braves can be contenders for the 2010 season if they play their cards right in this upcoming year.

Introduction

Hi. This is my first shot at doing a baseball blog. I would do a sports blog, but I do not pay close enough attention to basketball, football, or hockey to speak knowledgeably on Players, Teams, Coaches, etc. The title of this blog, for those unaware, is a reference to the song by John Fogharty, "Centerfield." As for the address of this, "The Say What Kid" is a parody of the great Willy Mays' nickname, "The Say Hey Kid." That, and it was available.

I was trying to get "imreadytoplay.blogspot.com" but it was inexplicably taken, I'm guessing by someone looking for sex. Could be wrong, I'm not gonna check. So, feel free to comment on my posts, praise my genius or call me an idiot.