It's getting towards the end of April, and the season is off a good start. Now that May is looming, trade talks will slowly build around certain players. As such, I am going to explore some trades, from the absurd to the not so absurd and discuss the ramifications of each.
Clay Buchholz for Jarrod Saltalamacchia.
This trade makes a lot of sense for the RedSox. There is no doubt that Varitek has seen better days. If the RedSox still had Kelly Shoppach, this would not be an issue. The Rangers get some much needed pitching help, and the RedSox get a dual-position player with a high upside. Not only that, but Saltalamacchia has said in an interview that he would like to play for the RedSox.
However, I don't think that this trade will ever happen. Last year would have made a lot of sense given the Rangers' depth at catcher. Now, the Rangers have Salty and Teagarden, the latter is better for defense, and the former, for offense.
Stephen Drew and Jarrod Parker for Cliff Lee
Earlier in the week there was discussion of the possibility of a Cliff Lee trade this season. If the Indians wanted a repeat of the CC Sabathia trade, then this would be the best case scenario. The Indians need a SS, and Stephen Drew could fulfill that. If Lee were to be traded, it would have to be to the NL. After a rough first two starts, Lee has put together back to back quality starts, both with pitch counts above 100. There is no doubt he is putting on a decent amount of mileage on his arm, and a move to the NL might help reduce that.
For the Diamondbacks, this trade makes sense because Webb is gone for 6 weeks at least. Danny Haren has been nothing but phenomenal so far, but he can't be this good all the time and needs a solid number one in front of him.
The Diamondbacks don't really have a good backup at shortstop, so it would be difficult for them to part with Stephen Drew.
Jarrod Parker is the top prospect in the Diamondbacks organization, ranked #29 overall by Baseball America, and will undoubtedly draw interest from many teams if he ever becomes available.
Andruw Jones for Ian Kennedy
Ian Kennedy's stock has fallen far. Andruw Jones, in his limited playing time, has done well, getting nine hits in nineteen at-bats (as of this writing). The Yankees get even more OF depth to help out while Nady is on the DL, whose return won't be for another 4 weeks at the earliest, probably five weeks after a rehab assignment to AAA Scanton-Wilkes Barre.
The Rangers, once again, get pitching help. A move to the south definitely would help Ian Kennedy, who isn't really fit for the atmosphere of the Bronx. He's been amazing in the minors, but can't seem to translate that into Major League success. The easier NL West definitely would help him, as would the dimensions of the Rangers Ballpark in Arlington.
This trade probably won't happen. Kennedy was high on Kennedy when Johan was on the block, and Andruw Jones isn't nearly as good or as needed as Johan was in the Bronx. The Yankees still hope that he can find major league success.
Saturday, April 25, 2009
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
Devine Out, More
Joey Devine is out for the season.
Another Tommy John Surgery for a young pitcher. The timing of this is good for the A's because it allows them to bring someone else up, or trade for a reliever to set up for Brad Ziegler, who is pretty much a lock for the closing duties in Oakland, barring a colossal meltdown. Devine's surgery comes after he had a standout season last year, posting a minuscule 0.59 ERA and superb 0.832 WHIP in 45.1 innings pitched in addition to strikeout to walk ratio of over 3 (not including intentional walks). He will return sometime during the 2010 season for A's, as the timetable for a TJ surgery recovery and rehab is about a year.
The Marlins are in first and off to a hot start.
This isn't really surprising if one examines the Marlins roster. The Marlins have Uggla and Hanley Ramirez up the middle to provide solid offense as well as Cameron Maybin in center. Their starting rotation is young and talented. They definitely will be contending for a playoff spot come September, barring any injuries. The only sad thing is that Marlins fans will suffer another six years of baseball purgatory after the firesale that owner Jeffery Loria is sure to have.
The Royals are in first.
This is surprising. The Royals have traditionally been the laughing stock of the AL. The fact that they are above .500 right is surprising. That being said, it shouldn't last. Zach Greinke has found some form, but will fall back down to earth by the end of May. The Royals are not helped either by the return of Joe Mauer to the Twins, who should boost the offense of the Twins.
Chien Ming Wang is off to a horrible start.
Something is wrong. Something is off after his recovery from his injury last year that caused Steinbrenner to condemn the NL for making pitchers hit. As of this writing, Wang's ERA right now is higher than his age. If the Yankees want to be competitive in the tough AL East, they need Wang to figure out what is wrong.
Another Tommy John Surgery for a young pitcher. The timing of this is good for the A's because it allows them to bring someone else up, or trade for a reliever to set up for Brad Ziegler, who is pretty much a lock for the closing duties in Oakland, barring a colossal meltdown. Devine's surgery comes after he had a standout season last year, posting a minuscule 0.59 ERA and superb 0.832 WHIP in 45.1 innings pitched in addition to strikeout to walk ratio of over 3 (not including intentional walks). He will return sometime during the 2010 season for A's, as the timetable for a TJ surgery recovery and rehab is about a year.
The Marlins are in first and off to a hot start.
This isn't really surprising if one examines the Marlins roster. The Marlins have Uggla and Hanley Ramirez up the middle to provide solid offense as well as Cameron Maybin in center. Their starting rotation is young and talented. They definitely will be contending for a playoff spot come September, barring any injuries. The only sad thing is that Marlins fans will suffer another six years of baseball purgatory after the firesale that owner Jeffery Loria is sure to have.
The Royals are in first.
This is surprising. The Royals have traditionally been the laughing stock of the AL. The fact that they are above .500 right is surprising. That being said, it shouldn't last. Zach Greinke has found some form, but will fall back down to earth by the end of May. The Royals are not helped either by the return of Joe Mauer to the Twins, who should boost the offense of the Twins.
Chien Ming Wang is off to a horrible start.
Something is wrong. Something is off after his recovery from his injury last year that caused Steinbrenner to condemn the NL for making pitchers hit. As of this writing, Wang's ERA right now is higher than his age. If the Yankees want to be competitive in the tough AL East, they need Wang to figure out what is wrong.
Saturday, April 18, 2009
Opening Day
First and foremost, I apologize immensely for the lack of updates lately. I have been very occupied. There will be more updates to come when I finish finals in May. Here is an update I meant to do a while ago.
So, opening day has come and past. It is one of my most favorite times of year, along with the baseball trade deadline. Many fans get excited when opening day comes, eager to see how the offseason acquisitions will pan out. Others look to opening day as a barometer of how well the season will go; to see whether or not players have their heads in the game, and to gauge their team's World Series chances. That got me thinking; what is the combined Opening Day record of all World Series winners?
Before I post the answer, I will post the guesses I collected. My guess is around 45% of World Series winners won their opening day game. My reasoning is that opening day probably has little to no impact on how well a team does during the season. It is, afterall, 162 games long, and things happen. Players get hurt. Players get traded. Certain acquisitions prove to be worthwhile, while others prove to be worthless. (Worthless x 2) (Worthless x 3).
Other guesses: My roommate guessed 54%, on a pure guess, thinking it would be a little higher than fifty, but not by much. His girlfriend guessed 60%.
The combined Opening Day record of World Series Winners is 69-35-1. (Extra points if you can name the one tie), which computes to 65.7%. While it hurts to be the most-wrong on this number, I should still analyze it.
65.7% is higher than each of us expected. This is not that unusually high, however. Assuming that there is a 50-50 chances of winning one's opening day game, then the result should be around 50%. However, given a standard distribution curve, 68% of the results should fall within one standard deviation of either side of the mean. So if we take the mean to be 50%, that means that the majority of the results taken from the sampling should fall inbetween 15.9% and 84.1%. This is a rather large range, so I prefer to take half a standard deviation, since the sample size is rather small. Within half a standard deviation, that means that the results should fall inbetween 33% and 67%. Given this small range, it is perfectly normal for the number of opening day game winners who went on to win the world series to fall in that range.
So, opening day has come and past. It is one of my most favorite times of year, along with the baseball trade deadline. Many fans get excited when opening day comes, eager to see how the offseason acquisitions will pan out. Others look to opening day as a barometer of how well the season will go; to see whether or not players have their heads in the game, and to gauge their team's World Series chances. That got me thinking; what is the combined Opening Day record of all World Series winners?
Before I post the answer, I will post the guesses I collected. My guess is around 45% of World Series winners won their opening day game. My reasoning is that opening day probably has little to no impact on how well a team does during the season. It is, afterall, 162 games long, and things happen. Players get hurt. Players get traded. Certain acquisitions prove to be worthwhile, while others prove to be worthless. (Worthless x 2) (Worthless x 3).
Other guesses: My roommate guessed 54%, on a pure guess, thinking it would be a little higher than fifty, but not by much. His girlfriend guessed 60%.
The combined Opening Day record of World Series Winners is 69-35-1. (Extra points if you can name the one tie), which computes to 65.7%. While it hurts to be the most-wrong on this number, I should still analyze it.
65.7% is higher than each of us expected. This is not that unusually high, however. Assuming that there is a 50-50 chances of winning one's opening day game, then the result should be around 50%. However, given a standard distribution curve, 68% of the results should fall within one standard deviation of either side of the mean. So if we take the mean to be 50%, that means that the majority of the results taken from the sampling should fall inbetween 15.9% and 84.1%. This is a rather large range, so I prefer to take half a standard deviation, since the sample size is rather small. Within half a standard deviation, that means that the results should fall inbetween 33% and 67%. Given this small range, it is perfectly normal for the number of opening day game winners who went on to win the world series to fall in that range.
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